Now that the deadline for presidency candidacy was over on Monday the race is open among the presidential hopefuls to build coalitions. With Ennahdha not presenting an official candidate, its voting base will inevitably have a say in the outcome of the November presidential elections, especially if a second round takes place, as many observers think. Six heavy-weights are at the starting blocks: Mouncif El Merzouki (CFR), BejiCaidSebsi (NidaTounes), NajibChabi (Republican Party), Hama Hamami (Labour), KamelMourjan (Al Moubadara –Initiative- Party), and MoustaphaNabuli (independent former central bank governor). Among the six candidates, Merzouki is the closest to Ennahdha’s preference but the latter is in a difficult position as it is believed there is a tacit Algerian veto on Merzouki, given his closeness to Morocco. Ennahdha would most probably then not call officially on its base to vote for Merzouki. No voting instruction would be given although it is believed that Merzouki would gain a sizeable chunk of Ennahdha’s votes. If November elections go to a second round MoustaphaNabuli has chances to be part of it because he made the tactical decision of standing as an independent, unlike his rival KamelMourjan, Ben Ali’s minister of foreign affairs before the 2011 revolution. The fact that there are several candidates coming from Ben Ali’s former Destourian RCD party means that the votes would be shared among them, which would contribute to their rivals. For this reason some observers think that BejiCaidSebssiwill withdrew from the race before election day. In addition to last week’s polemic about his health condition, key founding members of NidaTounes did not appreciate the way he dealt with the matter by expelling co-founders who disapproved of his candidacy.
