The main development in Libya’s stalemate over the last three weeks has been the offensive against the so-called “Islamic State” group in Sirte led (officially) by forces under the command of Faize Serraj’s Presidency Council. Reports from the field indicate that Islamic State militia are besieged in a 5 km sq area and have suffered significant losses.
On the frontline, it is in fact Misratan militia (Hatin and Al-Marsa) that have spearheaded the offensive, helped by airstrikes from aircraft using an air base in Misrata. Despite Serraj’s instructions to stop 60 km before Sirte, the Misratans stormed ahead and delivered advances against Islamic State in a remarkably a short time. The Misratans are determined to defeat Islamic State in Sirte because it represents a security threat to their home town, which is immediately west of Sirte. The significant Misratan advances in Sirte were soon reclaimed by Serraj, who admitted that the offensive was supported logistically by foreign military advisers.
On the eastern front, Benghazi Revolutionary militants have scored significant advances, taking control of parts of Jdabia to the detriment of Khalifa Hafter’s forces. Hafter’s troubles were complicated further by a shifting of alliances within his camp. First, Al-Awaguir tribe (a strong ally to Hafter and a main source of combatants) held a tribal council meeting in which they discussed reports of assassinations of Awaguir tribe figures, reportedly masterminded by Hafter’s men. The revelation led to a sort of split within the tribe; between those who are calling for an end to the alliance with Hafter and those who think doing so could have negative consequences on the tribe. Those in favour of ending the alliance with Hafter argue that Al-Awaguir tribe gained nothing from the alliance, while Al-Maghariba tribe control oil terminals, Al-Bara’sa tribe control the Tobruk-based government, and the Al-Abidaat control the House of Representatives (HoR).
Second, in a statement to a Libyan TV station, Ibrahim Djadhran (whose loyal forces control oil terminals in Jdabia) pledged to fight Hafter should his forces attempt to re-take Jdabia. Third, these developments come at a time when Aguila Saleh, president of the HoR, appointed Abderazak Nadhori, military commander of the zone stretching from Derna to Beni Jwad. This move has been decoded as a fallout between Saleh and Hafter. The latter flew to Cairo late last week and then arrived in Moscow on Sunday 26 June.
Politically, there have been reports of a mediation underway by Saudi Arabia, due to kick off at the end of the Ramadan, on 5 June. Reportedly, a delegation of Libyan tribal leaders will visit Riyadh after Ramadan, while a group of religious scholars will pay a visit to Sadek Gharyani, the Grand Mufti of Libya. Given this, Aguila Saleh’s arrival in Oman on Saturday 25 June was reportedly part of this Saudi mediation, some sources believe.
Links for more information:
https://www.libyaherald.com/2016/06/27/ageela-saleh-visits-oman
http://www.marsad.ly/en/2016/06/23/uk-troops-operating-french-led-libyan
http://video.akhbar-libya.ly/c1st87tp83df (Ibrahim Djadhran statement)
http://video.akhbar-libya.ly/rwguc2n1djic (Faraj Aguaim: Al-Awaguir tribe council meeting)
http://arabi21.com/story/915358
